Is “K” the Right Letter for Home Improvement? What I Shared at the HIRI Summit

I had the privilege of taking the stage at the HIRI Home Improvement Insights Summit, and I’m still thinking about the conversations that followed. If you were in the room, thank you for sticking with me through ten minutes between you and a long-awaited break, and for indulging my attempt to work through the alphabet. If you couldn’t make it, the full session is below, and I’ll walk through the highlights here.

Why does the “K-shaped economy” need a closer look in home improvement?

Of all the macro trends we’re inundated with, the K-shaped economy might be the most repeated and the least tested. It has become shorthand for a simple story: lower-income shoppers have cut spending and are only looking for the cheapest option, so growth lives and dies with higher-income households. It’s a big statement that “feels right” to a lot of us, but how do we action against the trend if we can’t contextualize it?

At YipitData we sit on a receipt panel of more than 12 million shoppers covering in-store and online purchases across Home Depot, Lowe’s, Amazon, Walmart, Menards, Tractor Supply and Ace Hardware, to name a few. That let us layer in the context the topline read masks about income dynamics. Is home improvement different from true discretionary sectors? Does Kitchen & Bath see the same trends as Building Materials? What about battery-powered string trimmers vs. gas-powered string trimmers? The answer turned out to be more interesting than the headline.

Have lower-income households stopped shopping home improvement?

Buy rates by income cohort are almost exactly where they were in 2023, the first year spending normalized after COVID. Households earning under $50K indexed at 90.9 in January to August 2023 and 90.2 in January to August 2026. The $200K+ cohort moved from 106.0 to 108.4. Every cohort in between shifted by about a point.

So are lower-income shoppers nosediving? No. Are higher-income shoppers driving relative growth? Yes. Both halves of the K are in the aisle, but why they’re there and how they define value HAS shifted, which brings me to the part of the talk I enjoyed most.

Where does shopper behavior actually pivot by income?

The real story isn’t about how much more or less different income groups are spending. It’s about where shopper behavior pivots.

At roughly $100K in household income, behaviors show a clear split. When we look at trip frequency and follow-up behavior instead of participation, the pattern looks less like a K and more like an X, with the crossover right around that line.

Below that line, the mantra in the data is “I need this, and I can’t afford to get it wrong.” Those shoppers are consolidating trips, combining replenishment with reactive repair and maintenance, and doing as much as possible in one visit. They are more DIY-capable than they get credit for and, somewhat to my surprise, a bit more brand loyal. Why? Because a failed purchase means a second trip they didn’t budget for and can’t afford.

Above the line, it’s “it disrupts the whole project if I get it wrong.” These shoppers are increasingly engaged in sequenced, project-based shopper missions that unfold over several weeks: a kitchen and bathroom remodel, a full backyard revamp across landscaping and gardening, lighting, and patio. This group’s shopper journeys are broad, multi-stage… and disruptive. For them, getting a purchase wrong means slowing down the whole project, an error they don’t have time for.

Same store. Same aisles. Two completely different missions.

Which home improvement categories skew to lower- and higher-income households?

Index each category group by income and a clear shape emerges. Households under $50K over-index on needs-based, functional categories like Cleaning (109), Outdoor Power Equipment (103) and Lumber (102). Paint and Tools sit in the middle, shopped roughly evenly by everyone. And $200K+ households over-index on whole-space upgrade categories: Electrical (112), Seasonal & Outdoor (108), Kitchen & Bath (107).

Why isn’t category-level data enough?

Well, here’s what the data tells us. 53% of home improvement sub-categories have an income structure that diverges from their parent category by more than 10 index points. If you’re planning assortment, pricing or messaging for Kitchen & Bath or OPE at the category level, you’re working from the wrong picture about half the time before you start. The home improvement industry trends that make it into a topline deck are real, but the actionable version of them lives one or two levels down.

And the assumption that lower-income shoppers only buy the cheapest option doesn’t hold either. In 68 sub-categories, households under $100K over-index on the top price tier more than $150K+ households do. Almost all of those are functional products. They aren’t trading up for bells and whistles; they’re paying for the product that gets the job done better, for longer, the first time.

Which brands are winning across every income cohort, and how?

I closed with three premium-priced brands that are winning across all income groups: Scotts Miracle-Gro in Lawn & Garden, BEHR in Paint, and RYOBI in Outdoor Power Equipment. There are plenty of cheaper alternatives to each of these brands, but they’re winning through a shared theme: communicating the right value, the right way, outweighs price. Scotts positions against the cost of failure with proven, tested claims. BEHR positions against the cost of rework with durability and cleanability that lasts for years. RYOBI positions against the cost of leaving the ecosystem: one battery, 85+ products, enough to mow half an acre. Each brand understands its project pain points, the role its category plays in causing or alleviating those pain points, and positions its products as a safeguard against that pain.

Their key message? “Pay up now to avoid regret later.” That message lands with a lower-income household fixing a leak they can’t afford to fix again in two months, as well as a higher-income household where picking the wrong sink would extend the kitchen remodel by weeks or months of rework.

What did I take home from the HIRI Summit?

Beyond the data, the thing I appreciated most about the Summit was the quality of the hallway conversations. The questions I got afterward were sharp and practical: how the pivot shifts by region (a $100K household in rural Minnesota is not a $100K household in New York), how trade professionals from lower-income cohorts fit into higher-income projects, and how retailer assortments and their various shoppers alter the story. Those are exactly the layers we’re excited to continue to unpack, and they’re a good reminder that industry trends only become useful once you can view them through the lens of your specific shoppers, categories and retailers.

My one-line summary from the stage still holds: “K” is the first letter in a longer sentence. Shopper behavior does diverge by income, but the blanket version of that story misses what’s happening below the surface, which is exactly where share is won or lost today.

Thank you to the HIRI team for the stage and for another great event, and to my fellow attendees for the engaging conversations around how they can apply these insights to their businesses. If you have questions about anything in the session, want to discuss what these trends look like for your specific categories and brands, or just want to compare notes on what you’re seeing, fill out the form to the right and I'll reach out. I’d love to continue the conversation.